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| The_Chopper
Posts: 4,418 Status: Lord Karma: +19 [+1] [-1]   |
Subject: My thoughts | |||||
| What many people seems to miss is that there is a % chance of a city getting attacked per 30mins.. be it 1/50 or 1/100, it is only a chance of attack. Many people interprete a 1/50 chance of attack as: "there should be at least an attack during 50 half hour revives" which is not totally true, as each probability after 30mins is independent of the previous event. Hence every half hour, the probability of occurence of an attack is always 1/50 for a particular city. It is indeed true that a city having 1/50 attack chance should be attacked more often than a city having 1/100 attack chance, BUT it is not always the case as its just probability not certainty. It works practically on the same principle of the OCC and/or the Hilo live game according to me. Random numbers generated to see if a city would be under attack or not...something like this... And since its random, it is not surprising that The city expected to be attacked the least, is infact getting attacked more often.. Try to recall, when in Hilo live, the AOS once came after 300 cards and sometimes there are 2 AOS's in an interval of 10 or so cards.. The probability is always the same for that card (as well as any other card), but still the outcome varies because it is randomized.. On the other hand, it may also be the case that the % chance of attack got changed without prior notice? |
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